When will COVID-19 hit your state hardest?
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation published a new model this week that projects when the peak of the pandemic might hit each state. Their data shows when we would need the most hospital and ICU beds. Their model is based on the various social distancing measures implemented in each state at the moment and makes the assumption that any states that haven’t already implemented the highest level of social distancing orders will do so within the next seven days, and that these measures will be in place at least until the end of May 2020.
The important thing to keep in mind with this is that it is a “pre-print” and has not been peer-reviewed yet.
See the original paper in Forecasting COVID-19 impact on hospital bed-days, ICU-days, ventilator days and deaths by US state in the next 4 months. MedRxiv. 26 March 2020. doi:10.1101/2020.03.27.20043752.
See the original article in Popular Science 3 Apr 2020